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Thursday, May 04, 2006

Teh campur susu, atau susu campur teh

Tentu hampir semua orang di negara ini pernah lihat iklan susu yang dipadukan dengan ketidak-mudeng-an anak kecil pada bahasa sunda. Minuman teh campur susu atau susu campur teh memang minuman yang jarang dibuat orang Indonesia, tapi tampaknya tidak aneh di negara lain.

Buku klasik statistika yang bicara tentang experimental design 'Fisher, RA. (1935). The Design of Experiments. Edinburgh; Oliver and Boyd.' di bab 2 memiliki cerita menarik tentang Lady Tasting Tea.

“A lady declares that by tasting a cup of tea made with milk she can discriminate whether the milk or the tea infusion was first added to the cup (katanya ada bedanya rasa minuman teh campur susu dengan susu campur teh). ... Our experiment consists in mixing eight cups of tea, four in one way and four in the other, and presenting them to the subject in random order. ... Her task is to divide the cups into two sets of 4, agreeing, if possible, with the treatments received. ... The element in the experimental procedure which contains the essential safeguard is that the two modifications of the test beverage are to be prepared “in random order.”

Percobaan ini banyak ditertawakan orang, yang kebanyakan profesor di bidang agriculture. Ngapain Fisher (waktu itu masih jadi statistisi di Rothamsted Experimental Station) susah-susah ngurusin begituan? Dibayanganku Fisher bilang, mari kita lihat bagaimana statistika membantu anda membuktikan perkataan ibu ini (ternyata namanya Muriel Bristol, thanks to google.com). Dan terbayang juga Fisher ingin bilang, mari biarkan statistika membantu menyelesaikan berbagai persoalan anda.

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